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Thursday, March 31st 2005

9:10 PM

Preseason Prognostications: It Begins

We finally made it. How surreal is it that the first day of the season is this Sunday? Forget about that for a moment...how surreal is it that the Boston Red Sox will enter the season as defending champions? I'd like to wish everybody a good season. I'm also practically peeing my pants, waiting to actually write on real live, regular season baseball. I'll update a little more often and talk about other subjects besides predictions. Believe me, there'll be plenty to talk about.

There's a good segue into my final predictions. Here's the story of the last few weeks of the season and the tale that will be told in the postseason:

With a month to go, the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox go into a dog fight for the Wild Card in the AL. The A's and Indians look like their inexperience and inconsistency will allow them to fade once again. Finally, in the last week, Schilling and Wells pitch huge back-to-back wins, putting the Rangers out of their misery once and for all.*

*Which brings me to a quick correction: I said in my last column that the Texas Rangers would make the playoffs. Well, sorry Dubya. Your former team ain't gonna make it. I completely forgot that the boys from Beantown have the stuff to win the Wild Card. But I'll stick with Mark Teixeira winning MVP. He's going to have a monster season.

Back in the NL, the Mets are giving their fans ulcers, staying within four games of the Marlins. The Astros have completely broken down, while the San Francisco Giants show their age (btw - everybody and their mothers is gift-wrapping the NL West title to the Bay Area. Honestly, folks, I don't see it, Bonds or no Bonds). Finally, with Josh Beckett pitching exquisitely in another pressure-filled game and Cy Young candidate A.J. Burnett up next, the Mets stop just short of the finish line to give the Fish another playoff berth.

Once again, the Yanks take out the Twins in the first round. Seriously, people, it's happened so often that the Pinstripers might as well get a first round bye. But here's your big upset...the Angels beat up on the BoSox, avenging Papi's dinger from last year. That's when they start to feel the Rally Monkey beginning to get louder. With Bartolo Colon pitching better than he ever has, he and Vlad and Finley dismantle a shocked Yankee team, sending The Boss into apoplectic fits, in six games. Oh my.

And what about the National League Champion Cards? They'd better get used to that title, as they take out the Marlins in a hard-fought first round. The stupid friggin' Braves actually get it right this time, out-pitching the Dodgers who look foolish even taking the bats off their shoulders. The irony comes in the NLCS: Mulder VERSUS Hudson!!! Yeehah! With the hot bats that haven't cooled down since the 2004 Championship Series, Pujols and Co. put the hurt on Chipper (LAAAAAAAAARRRYYYYYY) Jones. Ouch.

So it's two teams with great all-around lineups, some very familiar World Series faces (John Lackey, Orlando Cabrera, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders) and pitchers who are actually pretty dangerous. In seven great games, I present this season's Really Awesome-Looking Trophy (it's one of my favorites in all of sports) to (drum roll please....dumdadumdadumdumdadumdadumdumdadumdadumdumdadumdadum)...

The St. Louis Cardinals!!! Congratulations, boys. Hey, at least the Yanks didn't win it again.

And as a parting gift as we bid farewell to the offseason, here are some of my crazier picks for the upcoming season:

Least Valuable Player

NL - I've talked trash about him all winter. He's going to suck big time. Russ Ortiz, come collect your award!

AL - He's not going to produce like he did last season. I believe he's a one-year wonder who got waaaaaaayyyy overpaid. His name is...Adrian Beltre. Have fun while your team rebuilds its entire pitching staff next offseason. Yikes.

First Manager to be fired

NL - The Reds are in trouble this season. They're a mess. I wouldn't call what they have a pitching staff. It's a hodge-podge. That means Dave Miley is getting the hook, simply because the Big Red Machine in the front office will say, "we needed a new direction." Next will be Clint Hurdle in Colorado.

AL - I'm going with Tony Pena, even though he's a great manager, for the same reason that the Reds' GM will put forth.

Biggest Surprise Teams

NL - Pittsburgh Pirates. Sports Illustrated picked them to finish last in the NL Central. But considering everybody but the Cards could finish second, I like Oliver Perez and Jack Wilson leading a revolution in Steel Town.

AL - Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The fact that they won't finish in the basement will be the biggest victory in Florida since they were awarded the franchise. Random Dweller Note: if they hadn't broken the bank on Fred McGriff and Vinny Castilla, you think they'd still be the same laughingstock they are today? They probably would have spent their money better elsewhere. An intriguing thought.

Most Fun Teams to Watch

NL - Sorry folks. Fan bias. Let's Go Mets. Seriously though, I've heard other pundits say the same thing. They can run. They can catch. They can spray the ball to all fields. Their pitching staff will electrify some nights and disappoint on other nights. They even have some young players, for once. But for the first time in a long time, Shea will actually be buzzing. I'll also mention that the Marlins should be a lot of fun to watch as the pieces of the puzzle start to fall into place as they become a team.

AL - The Texas Rangers. Oh mercy. I'm drooling over the possibility of five players gunning for 100+RBI. Ain't gonna happen, but take a look at the BoSox of 2003 and see how close they got. I almost picked the Cleveland Indians, who will play the game like kids should.

Rookie of the Year

(I forgot this one from my last post)

NL - Apparently, from what I've heard, Gavin Floyd is the real deal in Philly. I'll give it to him after a long season of going back and forth between him and the Rockies' J.D. Closser.

AL - Jeremy Reed of the Seattle Mariners will get a lot of PT to prove how good he is. And trust me, he'll produce.

That's all, folks. Next week, I'll write about the first day jitters or, in honor of my idol, Bill Simmons the Sports Guy, I'll have a diary of my Opening Day experience (either watching the BoSox or listening to the Mets game on the radio at work...yes, some of us bloggers actually have to make a living).

See you in 2005....WOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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