I had a completely random (but baseball-related, of course) thought the other day: We've seen about 1-2 no-hitters a year in the last ten seasons (except for 2000). But that's not the random part. I was reflecting on the group of pitchers who have thrown them. Check out this list:


National League

1995 - Ramon Martinez
1996 - Al Leiter, Hideo Nomo
1997 - Kevin Brown, Francisco Cordova/Ricardo Rincon
1998 - None
1999 - Jose Jimenez
2000 - None
2001 - A.J. Burnett, Bud Smith
2002 - None
2003 - Kevin Milwood, That whole bunch of Houston Astros who no-hit the YANKEES
2004 - Randy Johnson (perfect game)

American League

1995 - None
1996 - Dwight Gooden
1997 - None
1998 - David Wells (perfect game)
1999 - David Cone (perfect game)
2000 - None
2001 - Eric Milton
2002 - Hideo Nomo
2003 - Derek Lowe

Now, what's strange about that entire list? Here's what I see: a whole bunch of mediocrity. Here's who's in the mix: some above-average veterans (Leiter, Nomo, Brown, Milwood, Wells, Cone, Gooden, etc.), a few young arms (Jimenez, Burnett, Smith, Milton) and one guaranteed Hall of Famer (Big Unit). No Clemens. No Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz. There's a member of the Martinez family, but it ain't Pedro. You get the idea. One could argue that some of the better pitchers we've had in the last ten years are on that list, but none of them is the kind of hurler who you could have predicted that would throw a no-no.

So I'm wondering who could pitch one this season. Here are five pitchers who I think have a chance:

Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - As many Mets fans know, he was the heir apparent. A future 20-game winner for sure. But at this point, he's only had one impressive start (a May 2nd loss to the Yankees), but like Bud Smith and Jose Jimenez, he's a rookie with lots of upside. Whether he'll end up like Smith or Jimenez is yet to be seen, but he's the kind of guy who could break out on any given night - which is exactly what you want for a no-hitter.

Daniel Cabrera (Baltimore Orioles) - Another young pitcher who can just plain bring it. The kid can throw 100 MPH and one of these days, he's going to settle down his control issues. When that happens...look out.

John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves) - Here's my Randy Johnson pick. He's looked fantastic this season and has the ability to have high strikeout games (15 against the Mets) while shutting down the opposition with grounders. The perfect formula for a no-hitter.

Livan Hernandez (Washington Nationals) - Ok. I'm picking him as a representative of the Good But Not Great crowd. I'm not sure Hernandez could do it, but a player like him could. He's been one of the above average hitters of his generation, but there are guys like Brad Radke and Mike Mussina who fall into the same category and have as good a chance at throwing a no-hitter as seasoned veterans. Just like Milwood and Nomo (the second time), they just may wake up one day and have the start of his life.

Noah Lowry (San Francisco Giants) - I mentioned Bud Smith in the Kazmir entry as a rookie with upside, but now Smith is in baseball's "Where are they now" (he's throwing with Philadelphia's Single-A team after a torn labrum put him under in 2001). I look at Lowry and I think the same thing. He won 7 in a row from 2004 to 2005 before losing four straight and frankly, he's not an overpowering pitcher. I just imagine there's some lucky young hurler who gets to the ballpark and just "feels it" that day. Lowry's my pick.

Call me clairvoyant...I mean, I did say that Tony Pena would be the first AL manager ousted. I know, I know -  he resigned and wasn't fired...ok fine. Call it partial ESP!

There are no comments to this entry.