...I'd like to address that very same topic for today's rant.
I just read
Ken Rosenthal's column regarding the Phillies' chances in the division, telling us that they are the most likely to emerge from the five-team pile-up. Mr. R., I hate to say it, but you're dead wrong. Here's my view of each team and where they're most likely to end up at this point:
Washington Nationals - We must start at the top, where the Ex-pos have surprised everybody with timely hitting from names like Brad Wilkerson, Jose Guillen and Nick Johnson , plus a sweet bullpen with Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero. But the ride's going to end soon for the Nats, who don't have the rotation to compete with the Marlins and (once they get healthy) Braves. Livan Hernandez continues to be the consistent pitcher that once won World Series MVP, but the rest of those pitchers? Nada. Tony Armas Jr. stinks. John Patterson hasn't looked the same after a stint on the DL. Let's not forget Tomo Okha. Blech. Once July settles in, it's back down they go. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: right above the cellar.
Atlanta Braves - Boy, things are looking really desperate for the first time in Hot-lanta. Yes, yes, we all said that last year, but with Larry Jones on the DL for a good month and Mike Hampton back there with him, the Tomahawk choppers aren't too pleased. Everybody, including me, wondered how they'd make it through 162 games with a starting outfield that included Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi. Right now, they're still in the thick of it with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz pitching fairly well while Adam LaRoche flexes the muscle we've been waiting to see. Rafael Furcal is finally getting out of his slump too. I hate to say it for the 14,293 time in the past 15 seasons, but you can't count this team out. Ever. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: Second place. Finally!
New York Mets - I'm loving what they're doing right now, but I swear, if they have a second-half fallout like last year's complete collapse, I'm going to be depressed. Pedro's been just about superhuman, while Carlos Beltran has been just about ordinary. One night, they get a great performance from Tom Glavine and 5 runs. The next night (ie - check your box scores tonight...), they can't drive in the leadoff hitters who get on. They're exactly where they want to be...but unless they go from being average to winning games that they should be killing in, AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: right in third place.
Philadelphia Phillies - Oh wow! They traded Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina! Oooooooooo...now I'm petrified. Look, if Jim Thome doesn't wake up and Tim Worrell comes back from his "personal reasons", there's no way that this team can even start thinking postseason. I don't want to hear that Bobby Abreu is having an MVP season. I don't want to hear that Chase Utley is amazing, despite his throwback name that's up there with Choo Choo Coleman. If Worrell comes back, having Urbina coming out of the bullpen with Billy Wagner is a little fear-inducing. Ok, I'm more than a little scared. But I'm expecting Brett Myers and Jon Lieber to falter while Randy Wolf picks it up slightly. They just don't have an ace like Pedro or Hudson to get them out of a slump that should hit them around the end of this month. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: with me, down here in the cellar.
Florida Marlins - No-brainer. They're going to win this division. I don't expect Dontrelle Willis to win 20 games...but he doesn't need to. A.J. Burnett will finally come out of his shell and Josh Beckett will continue to dominate. Just remember last year's Cards, who had a bunch of 15-game winners. That's approximately what the Fish will end up with. They've got wiley veterans like Al Leiter who may not be what he used to be, but the zen-like balance of experience and true young talent to push through this division. Oh, did I mention that Carlos Delgado is officially en fuego? AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: in the playoffs.