...I'd like to address that very same topic for today's rant.

I just read Ken Rosenthal's column regarding the Phillies' chances in the division, telling us that they are the most likely to emerge from the five-team pile-up. Mr. R., I hate to say it, but you're dead wrong. Here's my view of each team and where they're most likely to end up at this point:

Washington Nationals - We must start at the top, where the Ex-pos have surprised everybody with timely hitting from names like Brad Wilkerson, Jose Guillen and Nick Johnson , plus a sweet bullpen with Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero. But the ride's going to end soon for the Nats, who don't have the rotation to compete with the Marlins and (once they get healthy) Braves. Livan Hernandez continues to be the consistent pitcher that once won World Series MVP, but the rest of those pitchers? Nada. Tony Armas Jr. stinks. John Patterson hasn't looked the same after a stint on the DL. Let's not forget Tomo Okha. Blech. Once July settles in, it's back down they go. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: right above the cellar.

Atlanta Braves - Boy, things are looking really desperate for the first time in Hot-lanta. Yes, yes, we all said that last year, but with Larry Jones on the DL for a good month and Mike Hampton back there with him, the Tomahawk choppers aren't too pleased. Everybody, including me, wondered how they'd make it through 162 games with a starting outfield that included Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi. Right now, they're still in the thick of it with Tim Hudson and John Smoltz  pitching fairly well while Adam LaRoche flexes the muscle we've been waiting to see. Rafael Furcal is finally getting out of his slump too. I hate to say it for the 14,293 time in the past 15 seasons, but you can't count this team out. Ever. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: Second place. Finally!

New York Mets - I'm loving what they're doing right now, but I swear, if they have a second-half fallout like last year's complete collapse, I'm going to be depressed. Pedro's been just about superhuman, while Carlos Beltran has been just about ordinary. One night, they get a great performance from Tom Glavine and 5 runs. The next night (ie - check your box scores tonight...), they can't drive in the leadoff hitters who get on. They're exactly where they want to be...but unless they go from being average to winning games that they should be killing in, AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: right in third place.

Philadelphia Phillies - Oh wow! They traded Placido Polanco for Ugueth Urbina! Oooooooooo...now I'm petrified. Look, if Jim Thome doesn't wake up and Tim Worrell comes back from his "personal reasons", there's no way that this team can even start thinking postseason. I don't want to hear that Bobby Abreu is having an MVP season. I don't want to hear that Chase Utley is amazing, despite his throwback name that's up there with Choo Choo Coleman. If Worrell comes back, having Urbina coming out of the bullpen with Billy Wagner is a little fear-inducing. Ok, I'm more than a little scared. But I'm expecting Brett Myers and Jon Lieber to falter while Randy Wolf picks it up slightly. They just don't have an ace like Pedro or Hudson to get them out of a slump that should hit them around the end of this month. AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: with me, down here in the cellar.

Florida Marlins - No-brainer. They're going to win this division. I don't expect Dontrelle Willis to win 20 games...but he doesn't need to. A.J. Burnett will finally come out of his shell and Josh Beckett will continue to dominate. Just remember last year's Cards, who had a bunch of 15-game winners. That's approximately what the Fish will end up with. They've got wiley veterans like Al Leiter who may not be what he used to be, but the zen-like balance of experience and true young talent to push through this division. Oh, did I mention that Carlos Delgado is officially en fuego? AS OF RIGHT NOW THEY'LL END UP: in the playoffs.

...but due to circumstances like watching the Mets begin to heat up in the ultra-competitive NL East have set me back a few weeks in posting. Sometime this week, I'll get out of my weeks-long slump and bring you more from the cellar...

I had a completely random (but baseball-related, of course) thought the other day: We've seen about 1-2 no-hitters a year in the last ten seasons (except for 2000). But that's not the random part. I was reflecting on the group of pitchers who have thrown them. Check out this list:


National League

1995 - Ramon Martinez
1996 - Al Leiter, Hideo Nomo
1997 - Kevin Brown, Francisco Cordova/Ricardo Rincon
1998 - None
1999 - Jose Jimenez
2000 - None
2001 - A.J. Burnett, Bud Smith
2002 - None
2003 - Kevin Milwood, That whole bunch of Houston Astros who no-hit the YANKEES
2004 - Randy Johnson (perfect game)

American League

1995 - None
1996 - Dwight Gooden
1997 - None
1998 - David Wells (perfect game)
1999 - David Cone (perfect game)
2000 - None
2001 - Eric Milton
2002 - Hideo Nomo
2003 - Derek Lowe

Now, what's strange about that entire list? Here's what I see: a whole bunch of mediocrity. Here's who's in the mix: some above-average veterans (Leiter, Nomo, Brown, Milwood, Wells, Cone, Gooden, etc.), a few young arms (Jimenez, Burnett, Smith, Milton) and one guaranteed Hall of Famer (Big Unit). No Clemens. No Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz. There's a member of the Martinez family, but it ain't Pedro. You get the idea. One could argue that some of the better pitchers we've had in the last ten years are on that list, but none of them is the kind of hurler who you could have predicted that would throw a no-no.

So I'm wondering who could pitch one this season. Here are five pitchers who I think have a chance:

Scott Kazmir (Tampa Bay Devil Rays) - As many Mets fans know, he was the heir apparent. A future 20-game winner for sure. But at this point, he's only had one impressive start (a May 2nd loss to the Yankees), but like Bud Smith and Jose Jimenez, he's a rookie with lots of upside. Whether he'll end up like Smith or Jimenez is yet to be seen, but he's the kind of guy who could break out on any given night - which is exactly what you want for a no-hitter.

Daniel Cabrera (Baltimore Orioles) - Another young pitcher who can just plain bring it. The kid can throw 100 MPH and one of these days, he's going to settle down his control issues. When that happens...look out.

John Smoltz (Atlanta Braves) - Here's my Randy Johnson pick. He's looked fantastic this season and has the ability to have high strikeout games (15 against the Mets) while shutting down the opposition with grounders. The perfect formula for a no-hitter.

Livan Hernandez (Washington Nationals) - Ok. I'm picking him as a representative of the Good But Not Great crowd. I'm not sure Hernandez could do it, but a player like him could. He's been one of the above average hitters of his generation, but there are guys like Brad Radke and Mike Mussina who fall into the same category and have as good a chance at throwing a no-hitter as seasoned veterans. Just like Milwood and Nomo (the second time), they just may wake up one day and have the start of his life.

Noah Lowry (San Francisco Giants) - I mentioned Bud Smith in the Kazmir entry as a rookie with upside, but now Smith is in baseball's "Where are they now" (he's throwing with Philadelphia's Single-A team after a torn labrum put him under in 2001). I look at Lowry and I think the same thing. He won 7 in a row from 2004 to 2005 before losing four straight and frankly, he's not an overpowering pitcher. I just imagine there's some lucky young hurler who gets to the ballpark and just "feels it" that day. Lowry's my pick.

Call me clairvoyant...I mean, I did say that Tony Pena would be the first AL manager ousted. I know, I know -  he resigned and wasn't fired...ok fine. Call it partial ESP!

Look, Dwellers, I have to be completely honest with you. There are a whole bunch of writers out there who think that there are all these trends forming in the middle of May that could carry through the season. You're going to hear a whole bunch of people telling you Cy Young winners already and a few division clinchers while you're at it. I want you to ignore most of what they're saying. Because, people, it's MAY. NOT JULY. MAY.

I know I'm about to dash a few dreams to pieces, but somebody's gotta tell it like it is. And that's what I'm here for. So, let's begin with...

 The Chicago White Sox. Sorry, folks. I don't see this trend keeping up throughout the summer. Yes, I know they're in a weak division and have one of the best pitching staffs in the league. But given past history (because, really, that's what predictions in baseball are based on), the Sox will be turning black again. El Duque won 17 games a while ago. Jose Contreras isn't capable of anything, not even working as a number 5 starter. I'll give you Mark Buehrle - he's the real deal - but Jon Garland and his career 4.56 ERA are coming to Earth reaaaaalll soon. And remember that a bullpen by committee almost NEVER works. So everyone who's calling Ozzie Guillen a genius, put a sock in it. The Minnesota Twins haven't figured it all out yet, but they will in the near future.

How 'bout them New York Yankees? I'd like to quote myself for a moment: "The Big Unit will get on track. Carl Pavano will settle down. The bats will wake up. And Mo Rivera will save another 45-50. It disheartens me to write all that, but as a impartial judge of the game, it's true." I started hating all those stories on ESPN.com and in the Times that began grumbling about what the Yanks were going to do. Why? Because it was only a matter of time. While I think they're more vulnerable than ever and that Tino Martinez can't be Superman forever, another AL East title is just plain inevitable. Speaking of which...

Attention, Baltimore Orioles! Will the following players please join Jon Garland in the Coming Down to Earth line: Brian Roberts. Bruce Chen. Daniel Cabrera. Erik Bedard. (pause) That is all. Miguel Tejada, you can and will hit 150 RBI again.

Now, here's an article I can't stand. Mr. Kurkjian: I really really respect you as a baseball writer and think you're one of the best in the biz. But the Arizona Diamondbacks aren't going to be playoff-bound come October. This team doesn't have a proven ace, and their starting pitching includes a few ex-Yanks who have looked dazzling at times, but do you believe that Javier Vazquez can actually live up to his potential? A few years ago he was a 20-game winner, easily. And Russ Ortiz is up to his old antics, throwing junk. I commend the Brandons - Lyon (I had him on my fantasy team until I traded him for C.C. Sabathia) and Webb - for looking good so early, but I think this team is a couple of years away, especially when the Dodgers and Giants (when all of their stars come back from injury) are in your division. They can hit, I'll admit that. Then again, they're starting Royce Clayton. Ugh.

What we are going to see in the next month is a team really catch fire and begin winning something like 15 of their next 18. I'm nominating the Tigers who have the bats (and a kid named Nook) and a few young arms who could come alive soon. I'd also really like to see the Texas Rangers really take off. Chan Ho Park looks marginally better and Chris Young has some potential.

How 'bout some comments on what to write next? Give me a topic...I'll cover it. We'll call next week "Viewer's Choice."

When I first heard that Washington D.C. would be awarded the Montreal franchise, the first thought that crossed my mind was this one: will fans in the nation's capital really take to a team that was simply dumped on them from Canada? They've already got the Orioles and the city has a couple of franchises in other sports who have seen marginal, if insignificant, success (the Capitals made the Stanley Cup finals a while back, the Wizards just made the playoffs for the first time in a long time, and the Redskins? Oy). But after spending a weekend in D.C. and a night at RFK Stadium, I'm convinced that this city, not Las Vegas, deserved the Nationals.

I spent most of my pre-game Saturday on the Mall, walking around and taking in the sights, but even before high noon, I noticed something right off the bat: I saw A LOT of Nats wear. It wasn't as hardcore as Boston, where everywhere you look, guys have their beat-up hats they've worn everyday for 14 years or the standard tee-shirts. But I saw scripted W's on heads throughout the city, from the guys on the Metro to the parents pushing their kids around the National Gallery. I also ran into a few kids with Nats jackets. People seemed to have embraced this team and made it their own. I figured out pretty quickly that this wasn't the Ex-pos in Washington; you could almost say that people act like this team has been around for years.

The more curious sight around the Mall was the amount of Mets jerseys I saw. I ran into between six to ten Mets hats and shirts while walking around. I asked one of the owners of said hats if he was going to the game and he said he wasn't. Hmm. Very weird, but somehow comforting (more on that later).

That night, five of my friends and I planned to go to RFK Stadium and watch the game. Naturally, I wore my Mets jersey and prepared for the ribbing that comes with territory of visiting a ballpark. But from the moment I stepped into the Metro, I started smiling. The red and white of the train's fans was peppered with orange "NY"s and a couple of grey away jerseys. Niiiiiiice. I started pointing at these lucky fans and giving that look that says, "We're in this together." And right when I got off the train, I heard those Queens-tinged baritones singing, "Meet da Mets! Meet da Mets! Dah dah dah dah and greet da Mets." Of course, I joined in and filled in a few lyrics. When we started a "Let's Go Mets" chant, however, I got a taste of what was to come: "Let's go Nationals, let's go! (clap clap)." I was thoroughly impressed at the Washington pride I was hearing.

I'll be the first to admit that I've never been to the 45,000+ seat RFK Stadium and I found it pretty easy to navigate. We bought the $10 nosebleed tickets and headed in. Five minutes later, we were between home and first and a lot closer than I thought we'd be in the upper deck of a football stadium.

One of my favorite things to do at any baseball game is chat with the section. You meet all kinds of fascinating/weird/crazy personalities at any sports venue, but I always feel that baseball stadiums are better places than, say, basketball or hockey games since there's a lot of downtime and the pace is leisurely enough that you can chat between pitches or during inning breaks.

I found myself surrounded by a few fellow Mets fans (suffering already as Victor Zambrano proved once again that he will never be worth Scott Kazmir), but the Nats boys were serious fans. They started trash talking with me from the minute I began clapping it up for New York, who looked like they were confused by Tomo Okha from the first pitch of the game. "We'll be there in September, you can bet." "$100 million for Beltran? I'll take Brad Wilkerson any day for 1/10th of the price!"  My response? "Let's go Expos!!" I heard a smattering of laughs and felt the dirty looks.

When the Mets finally showed a bit of life in the eighth, I heard the steady roar and standing O's from a real big contingency of NY fans. I guess with Washington so close, perhaps there were a bunch of fans who decided to make a trip, or there were some displaced folks who didn't have a team to root for and decided to embrace their neighbors to the north. Yes, I also notice that at most games wherever you go, there are fans rooting for the opposing team. But this was way above average for a visiting team. That's NYC for you: no matter where you go, our voice is still heard.

As many of you saw on Saturday, the rain kept coming down (thank God for nosebleed seats - we got an overhang!) and the poor understaffed grounds crew had some serious trouble with the tarp. Having watched them slip, slide, and fail at getting the tarp on the field during the first rain delay, I knew that when the umps called the Mets off the field and I saw them splash through the infield puddles, there was going to be a biiiiiiiiiig problem getting that field covered.

So I was reduced to root for the tarp (Go! Go! Go!), which took almost an hour to unfurl and drag through the now-torrential downpour. In fact, me and my buddies were so gung ho about the game being called that we ran down and tried to get on the field to help the grounds crew, who had to call to the bullpen for extra bodies from the Nats' version of the Party Patrol (too bad it's considered trespassing for a fan to step foot onto a field - we didn't want to spend the night in jail). I'm really glad to hear that the Mets protested the game because of the rain delay debacle (Bud Selig is probably laughing at that one), but having been there, you gotta feel it for the crew, who didn't have the manpower to deal with that kind of mess. And about half the fans who came (announced attendance was around 41,000) stuck around and cheered.

All of this means that baseball in Washington is definitely for real. Any concerns that fans wouldn't flock to RFK are absolutely gone. Not only that, but these aren't apathetic rooters. They really believe in this team and don't seem to be concerned that they're stuck watching baseball in a converted football stadium. And as I've said in previous columns, it must be a big help to guys like Wilkerson and Jose Vidro to hear more than 5,000 cheers from the stands. It certainly reflects in the wins column (at least thus far). You may actually see a packed stadium in September as the Nationals attempt to do the unthinkable: compete for (GASP) a playoff spot. Do you think the fans in Montreal (all 10,000 of them) are yelling, "Sacre bleu!"? Nah. This is the capital's team now.

That's right, Dwellers. I'm off to our nation's capital for a weekend. Instead of posting my weekly rant tonight, as usual, I'll have an action-packed post early next week from RFK Stadium, where my beloved Mets will take on the surprising Expos...I mean, Nationals. I'll have a full report on baseball in D.C. for you when I return. I know you'll be on pins and needles until then.

Sure, it's only the third week of the season. But thus far, there have been quite a few surprises that have made some of the naysayers look a bit foolish. However, as I've hammered into your head many times, it's a looooooonnnnnnggggg season, so most of those naysayers are going to have their day sooner or later. In the meantime, let's see what they've said (I'm paraphrasing here) that's been completely blown out of the water:

"The LA Dodgers will underachieve this season" - I'll be the first to say I told you so. I don't think the Dodgers will last this long as the most dominant team in baseball, but nobody gave them a chance. Everybody gave the division to the old guys with walkers over in San Francisco. Look at what they've got: very solid starting pitchers (there's no "ace", but Odalis Perez, Jeff Weaver and Derek Lowe are a nice set of #2's).Their lineup isn't totally formidable, but Milton Bradley looks as if the anger management has helped him greatly.  And they don't even have Eric Gagne to close things out! So I have to puff my chest out a bit and say that I was one of the only believers in this team.

"Nomahhhh is far from Chicago's savoir" - Right before the muscle in his groin ripped off the bone (OWWWWWWWWW...), I was going to debunk this one. He got off to a terrible start and the grumbles began. The team hasn't looked completely overpowering, and frankly, it might have taken Garciaparra a while before he got into the groove at Wrigley. So maybe he needs a couple of months off to get healthy again and join a team that could be in the thick of a pennant race in June. Nobody needs a groin injury, but sometimes if you start off badly, a break is necessary.

"The Yankees suck" - I'm getting rid of this thought right away for anyone who actually believes it. I mean, yes, I do say it and try to deny the fact that the Yanks will win yet another AL East title. But come on! The Big Unit will get on track. Carl Pavano will settle down. The bats will wake up (as they did the other night). And Mo Rivera will save another 45-50. It disheartens me to write all that, but as a impartial judge of the game, it's true.

"Steroids will be the main focus of the 2005 season" - So far, not so much. I thought the Alex Sanchez suspension would start a whole bunch of columns saying, "The floodgates have opened." But there really hasn't been much of that. Three suspensions to mostly marginal players isn't making headlines and changing the game. I'm still waiting for that big star to get busted and that's when this statement will come true. Otherwise, it's been a great start to the season with a couple of small incidents. I think the crackdown from MLB (and the government) has worked well.

"Richie Sexson = tainted goods" - Not so far...

"The ChiSox can't pitch to their potential" - Oh boy. That one's being debunked quickly.

"The Nats are just the Expos in Washington" - I think having tens of thousands of more fans at the ballpark will absolutely affect your attitude and team morale. It's paying off thus far, though I don't know how long it will last. Speaking of which, I may make it out to RFK next weekend for a matchup against the Mets...stay tuned.

And finally, I wanted to respond to Wendy, who has been a great fan and supporter of the Bleacher Bums. Wendy, in response to my doormen column, said, "I honestly think that people who are PRIVILAGED enough to have doormen, shouldn't fucking complain about some doorman who doesn't see eye with you about baseball teams!"

Wendy - I agree 100%...if I had said that I disagree with my doormen. These are guys who are my friends and who I trust more than some of the other so-called baseball experts walking around this fine city. I am certainly privileged to have a building with doormen, but my point was to call them pundits, which they most certainly are. And I'm not being sarcastic when I say this, but other readers should check out Wendy's blog - it's one of the more interesting and unique blogs on the internet today.

Keep coming back, Dwellers...

Allow me to let you in on a little New York City secret: if you want to gauge how your team is going to do or even want to hear the voice of the masses, there is a group of hard-working gentlemen who are more insightful and astute than the average sports nuts you meet while drinking a Bud at a pub. I am, of course, talking about doormen (or, to be a little more PC, doorpeople).

Remember that episode of Seinfeld in which Jerry gets stuck in the lobby waiting for Elaine and attempts to strike up a conversation with a sarcastic doorman about sports? The doorman gets insulted because he believes Jerry assumes that all he knows about is sports. Why was that funny? Because it's true.

I spend about 1% of my day (that's a lot when you think about it) talking to my doormen about the Mets and the Yanks. Most of them, as most of NYC is, are Yankee fans. Obviously, there's a lot of chiding, needling and teasing (being a Mets fan, I get most of it). But imagine my immense pleasure when I heard that one of them, a diehard Pinstriper, was so distraught after the BoSox took the rug out from under the Yanks, he had to take a few days off. Ouch.

Yesterday, I walked out of my elevator holding up four fingers to one of the Bombers' fans, indicating that my Mets would win their fourth in a row (indeed they did, in exciting fashion). This particular doorman, who we'll call Bobby, stopped me for a moment. I started teasing him about the Yanks underachieving thus far and Bobby did a semi-shrug, as if to say, "Eh. We'll make the playoffs anyway." But then he gave me one of the most keen assessments of the Yankees I've heard in a long time.

To paraphrase, Bobby said that he wanted the Bombers to get killed some more this year. How about a few more blowouts? More humiliation at the hands of the Sox? Sure! Because the Yankees, as he put it, "needed to be the underdogs." Just like the Red Sox.

I stop in my tracks for a moment. It's not like I haven't heard it before. But I hadn't figured out what the Yankees really need to take their team over the top and make themselves into actual champions. Bobby was seriously right.

In fact, today, in the aftermath of the Sheffield incident in last night's game, Bobby was pretty excited. "That's what I'm talkin' about! It's that kinda stuff that'll get 'em angry!," he called out to me as I imitated Gary's wild swinging motion at the fan to him upon sight out of the elevator. "It all works into my theory!" Only in New York City do the doormen have the Yankee Theory, the solution to all their problems.

The point of all this is that I haven't heard a better theory. It just reminds me of the 2004 Red Sox, who looked like they were going to struggle again...until that moment. You know which one. It's plastered all over the place in the memories of BoSox fans everywhere and the cover of Stephen King's book. When Jason Varitek planted his glove into Alex Rodriguez's face, there was a palpable change in Boston's demeanor. They weren't going to let the Yankees push them around. Sure enough, that swagger carried them to the championship.

So that's what every team, but particularly the Yankees, need. A boost. Motivation. Something to fight for. They just don't have the desperation (why would they? They're all overpaid All-Stars) that a scrappy, feisty team fighting for their playoff lives should have.

Perhaps Gary Sheffield's wild swing last night was that spark. They're fed up with hearing it and now feeling it from the fans. CELLAR DWELLER SIDE NOTE: I think the fan was a complete moron for swinging his arm at Sheff's head, so I'm happy that Gary actually somewhat retaliated just to show that fans should NEVER touch a player. I originally thought the same thing about the Malice at the Palace of Auburn Hiills, except that Ron Artest never should have reacted the way he did, but once that fan-player wall has been physically breached, the field is equalized. Players and fans become humans against humans. Instinct and reaction can sometimes take over.

Getting back to Bobby's theory, if it takes something to unify the Bronx Bombers, whether it be a fight, a retaliatory hit batsman, or even just a late night together on the town, then that's what will take Yanks from perennial losers in the playoffs to a force to be reckoned with. Sometimes, the best team doesn't win. It's the one that wants it the most.


A few more random thoughts:

--Good to see the Nats get a sellout crowd. Obviously, they'll get waaaay better numbers in attendence than they would have in Montreal, but think about guys like Jose Vidro and Brad Wilkerson who have had to play for years in a place where they could hear themselves if they talked at the level of a whisper.

--Ichiro will make a run at .400. I was going to say that at the beginning of the season, but honestly, he's now at the point where he's learned how to be an effective major league hitter (whoever told him to try to hit more home runs at the beginning of last season should be canned) and he's figured out pitching. Expect a ton more of those slappers to all fields and low line drives where he bends his knees to go down and get it. I don't think he'll get .400, but he'll keep us watching until September.

--And finally, I've been able to actually watch the New York Mets playing some fantastic baseball. Right this minute, Carlos Beltran just caught a ball in center field with Juan Pierre, the speedster to end all speedsters, on third and one out. Of course Pierre's going to tag...except Beltran throws a strike to Mike Piazza. Pierre holds up, and the Mets get out of the inning with a groundout. Just having Beltran even roaming out there is enough to scare one of the best runners in the league. Plus, we're finally seeing a Mets team that wants to run (Reyes, knock wood, stay healthy!!) and seems more motivated. They aren't jogging lazily to first anymore and the stupid mistakes that seemed to plague them in the last few seasons are, at least so far, disappearing. Let's see if they can keep it going.

To put it simply: it begins.

Here are my Random Thoughts about Opening Week:

--I'm glad that right before Opening Day came, somebody got busted for steroids. I was shocked to hear who it was and that they'd already caught someone, but at least we got "the first" out of the way. But Alex Sanchez? That's what makes his suspension a head scratcher. Here's a guy who makes a living on his speed, not his muscle. Maybe it was some kind of mistake he made, but that's a guy who doesn't need steroids. It's better that it wasn't someone who had a Brady Anderson-like year and then petered out. I'm expecting a few more positive tests by the end of the season, and a few of them will be shockers like this one.

--Speaking of speed, I think teams are actually expecting the steal more these days. With all the hype surrounding Carl Crawford, Jose Reyes, Ichiro, etc., we could be seeing the return of the speedster. I've missed that part of the game for a very long time, since the stolen base is one of the more exciting moments to watch in a game and it's a lost art form. With the whole steroid scandal, you gotta wonder if teams are going to depend more on the basepaths than the longball. Plus, fantasy-wise, the way people were drafting base swipers like they were gold, owners are really starting to believe that SBs will win them an entire league. Weird.

--I refuse to talk about the New York Mets until they win a game. I'm still in shock over the fact that the friggin' Cinci Reds swept them. Just sickening.

--All this talk about Mariano Rivera losing his stuff and becoming a middle-of-the-road closer is bull pucky. I agree that the BoSox are officially in his head after last year's playoffs, but the man still has the most effective pitch of anybody in the game and the chance to save another 50 again. He's gotten old, I'll admit it, but he still strikes fear into 99.9% of the hitters he faces. That alone is an advantage over guys like Braden FRIGGIN Looper. Ok, I'll stop.

--As for the other closers who blew games in the first week (there are a handful), you know that there are GMs out there who are already staring at their bullpen, trying to find a decent replacement. Here's a lesson, folks: there are only four, maybe five elite closers out there. And most of them are aging (Trevor Hoffman, Rivera) or are injured (I'm curious to see what happens to Eric Gagne after he recovers). The rest of 'em? Bah. They're bound to blow a bunch of games throughout the year. So deal with it. Unless you're Billy Beane, who tosses closers aside almost every year (expect Octavio "Heartbreak" Dotel to be ushered out of town this summer), you shouldn't expect your closer to be the next Mo. It just ain't gonna happen. Though I think this Huston Street kid sounds like a prodigy.

--Guys who have impressed me in three games: Brad Wilkerson (who knew how versatile he is). Jeremy Bonderman (breakout! Breakout!). Tadihito Iguchi (what Kaz Matsui should be). Troy Glaus. And, with gritted teeth, the Yanks. Clint Barmes (uhhhh...who?? Maybe it's the Colorado air).

And, yes, I'm aware that I'm commenting on a whole three games. I'll have some more thoughts as the season starts to take shape, but it's been surreal to have baseball back and actually have something real to talk about. So how 'bout some questions for me? Requests? Complaints? I wanna hear some feedback, people!

We finally made it. How surreal is it that the first day of the season is this Sunday? Forget about that for a moment...how surreal is it that the Boston Red Sox will enter the season as defending champions? I'd like to wish everybody a good season. I'm also practically peeing my pants, waiting to actually write on real live, regular season baseball. I'll update a little more often and talk about other subjects besides predictions. Believe me, there'll be plenty to talk about.

There's a good segue into my final predictions. Here's the story of the last few weeks of the season and the tale that will be told in the postseason:

With a month to go, the Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox go into a dog fight for the Wild Card in the AL. The A's and Indians look like their inexperience and inconsistency will allow them to fade once again. Finally, in the last week, Schilling and Wells pitch huge back-to-back wins, putting the Rangers out of their misery once and for all.*

*Which brings me to a quick correction: I said in my last column that the Texas Rangers would make the playoffs. Well, sorry Dubya. Your former team ain't gonna make it. I completely forgot that the boys from Beantown have the stuff to win the Wild Card. But I'll stick with Mark Teixeira winning MVP. He's going to have a monster season.

Back in the NL, the Mets are giving their fans ulcers, staying within four games of the Marlins. The Astros have completely broken down, while the San Francisco Giants show their age (btw - everybody and their mothers is gift-wrapping the NL West title to the Bay Area. Honestly, folks, I don't see it, Bonds or no Bonds). Finally, with Josh Beckett pitching exquisitely in another pressure-filled game and Cy Young candidate A.J. Burnett up next, the Mets stop just short of the finish line to give the Fish another playoff berth.

Once again, the Yanks take out the Twins in the first round. Seriously, people, it's happened so often that the Pinstripers might as well get a first round bye. But here's your big upset...the Angels beat up on the BoSox, avenging Papi's dinger from last year. That's when they start to feel the Rally Monkey beginning to get louder. With Bartolo Colon pitching better than he ever has, he and Vlad and Finley dismantle a shocked Yankee team, sending The Boss into apoplectic fits, in six games. Oh my.

And what about the National League Champion Cards? They'd better get used to that title, as they take out the Marlins in a hard-fought first round. The stupid friggin' Braves actually get it right this time, out-pitching the Dodgers who look foolish even taking the bats off their shoulders. The irony comes in the NLCS: Mulder VERSUS Hudson!!! Yeehah! With the hot bats that haven't cooled down since the 2004 Championship Series, Pujols and Co. put the hurt on Chipper (LAAAAAAAAARRRYYYYYY) Jones. Ouch.

So it's two teams with great all-around lineups, some very familiar World Series faces (John Lackey, Orlando Cabrera, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders) and pitchers who are actually pretty dangerous. In seven great games, I present this season's Really Awesome-Looking Trophy (it's one of my favorites in all of sports) to (drum roll please....dumdadumdadumdumdadumdadumdumdadumdadumdumdadumdadum)...

The St. Louis Cardinals!!! Congratulations, boys. Hey, at least the Yanks didn't win it again.

And as a parting gift as we bid farewell to the offseason, here are some of my crazier picks for the upcoming season:

Least Valuable Player

NL - I've talked trash about him all winter. He's going to suck big time. Russ Ortiz, come collect your award!

AL - He's not going to produce like he did last season. I believe he's a one-year wonder who got waaaaaaayyyy overpaid. His name is...Adrian Beltre. Have fun while your team rebuilds its entire pitching staff next offseason. Yikes.

First Manager to be fired

NL - The Reds are in trouble this season. They're a mess. I wouldn't call what they have a pitching staff. It's a hodge-podge. That means Dave Miley is getting the hook, simply because the Big Red Machine in the front office will say, "we needed a new direction." Next will be Clint Hurdle in Colorado.

AL - I'm going with Tony Pena, even though he's a great manager, for the same reason that the Reds' GM will put forth.

Biggest Surprise Teams

NL - Pittsburgh Pirates. Sports Illustrated picked them to finish last in the NL Central. But considering everybody but the Cards could finish second, I like Oliver Perez and Jack Wilson leading a revolution in Steel Town.

AL - Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The fact that they won't finish in the basement will be the biggest victory in Florida since they were awarded the franchise. Random Dweller Note: if they hadn't broken the bank on Fred McGriff and Vinny Castilla, you think they'd still be the same laughingstock they are today? They probably would have spent their money better elsewhere. An intriguing thought.

Most Fun Teams to Watch

NL - Sorry folks. Fan bias. Let's Go Mets. Seriously though, I've heard other pundits say the same thing. They can run. They can catch. They can spray the ball to all fields. Their pitching staff will electrify some nights and disappoint on other nights. They even have some young players, for once. But for the first time in a long time, Shea will actually be buzzing. I'll also mention that the Marlins should be a lot of fun to watch as the pieces of the puzzle start to fall into place as they become a team.

AL - The Texas Rangers. Oh mercy. I'm drooling over the possibility of five players gunning for 100+RBI. Ain't gonna happen, but take a look at the BoSox of 2003 and see how close they got. I almost picked the Cleveland Indians, who will play the game like kids should.

Rookie of the Year

(I forgot this one from my last post)

NL - Apparently, from what I've heard, Gavin Floyd is the real deal in Philly. I'll give it to him after a long season of going back and forth between him and the Rockies' J.D. Closser.

AL - Jeremy Reed of the Seattle Mariners will get a lot of PT to prove how good he is. And trust me, he'll produce.

That's all, folks. Next week, I'll write about the first day jitters or, in honor of my idol, Bill Simmons the Sports Guy, I'll have a diary of my Opening Day experience (either watching the BoSox or listening to the Mets game on the radio at work...yes, some of us bloggers actually have to make a living).

See you in 2005....WOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!